The whole world is fighting against
the new corona virus: COVID-19. The medical experts are also new on full
understanding the characteristic of this virus. The virus related data are
flooding in. The preliminary statistical analysis and inferences are emerging.
People are panicking along with
the Governments are in dilemma to make evidence based policy making. The major
problem of this disease is unavailability of confirmed cure though large
numbers of corona patients are already cured. Till this writing (22 March 2020)
as of WHO
situation report, nearly 300k persons are infected and nearly 5% of
infected persons died.
Governments all over the world
including Nepal are making decisions on Ad-hoc basis. Lots of noises
distributed without any facts and evidences. All over the world governments are
announcing lock down without knowing, how long they could have to do the same.
The announced lock down period also varies. Some governments have announced for
a week, some two weeks and …The announcement do not have any supported facts.
It is sure the long term impact of COVID – 19 will be very costly for every
nation.
According to www.worldmeters.info, 100k cases are
closed. From the closed cased, the outcomes reflects 87% patients were
recovered and 13% were dead. Here it is noteworthy; every infected persons do
not died. The same website has mentioned, as of currently infected persons in
treatment, 95% are in mild condition and 5% are in critical condition. This
evidence reflects even someone test positive, it does not means he/she
certainly goes in critical conditions and died ultimately.
The biggest learning is from China . According
to www.cdc.gov , the website of centers for
disease control and prevention of US, in its The Morbidity and Mortality weekly
report published on 20 March 2020 mentions the data from China suggest
(COVID-19) deaths have occurred among adults aged ≥60 years and among persons
with serious underlying health conditions. Only one death occurred in age <=
19 years. In US no ICU admissions or deaths were reported among persons
aged ≤19 years.
As of 4,226 cases reported in US
on 16 March, age of 2,449 patients known. Among the age known patients, the age
disaggregation shows 9% were from age group ≥85 years, 36% were aged 65–84
years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44
years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years.
Further, the Chinese Scientists
have published the preliminary study report on COVID 19 cases on 2143 children
in Journal of pediatrics. They have concluded Children at all ages were
sensitive to COVID-19, and there was no significant gender difference. Clinical
manifestations of children’s COVID-19 cases were less severe than those of
adults’ patients.
After China, Italy has been
epicenter for pandemic effect of corona virus. Till this writing, 59k cases
recorded and among this 12k cases has been closed. The outcome of closed cases
is 56% recovered and 46% death. On comparing the closed cases of Italy with
China, the horrible picture is reflected in Italy. In china only 5% death
occurred in closed cases. The in depth study of age statistics in the Italy
cases still to be published. However, Italy is the second nation with highest
population with age greater than 65. According to the news published in www.telegraph.co.uk, the death is hard
hit on old age people. The median age of Italy patients is 67 years while for
China it is 46 years. This fact reflects why death toll in Italy is high in
comparison to China. Also, it is obvious older the age, it is equally likely to
be coupled with other diseases. It is expected the mortality rate could be low
in Italy if death number separated that caused solely from corona virus.
Luckily, Nepal remaining safe on
spreading new Corona virus. Recently prevention measures have been adopt that
is praiseworthy. It is equally necessary to question mark, is control and
prevention measure going on any analyzing of evidences? Many state and non-state
organizations have expended the resources for prevention and control. Such as
isolation wards prepared, training delivered, awareness messages disseminated
and others etc. etc. This stimulated another question, is resources expended on
worthwhile stuffs?
The learning of other countries
as of evidences discussed above reflects the corona virus hard hit the old age
citizens. The corona virus alone do not kill the patients, when coupled with
other disease accelerate the death rate. Naturally old age citizens need care
more than normal aged patients. Treatment for corona virus alone may not
suffice for curing the patients coupled with other diseases. Likewise, the
generations of evidences if epidemic out broke is equally important. The
availability of solid facts help health care experts and policy makers for
inform decision with evidence. The informed decision making do not put decision
maker in dilemma. Has Nepal prepared
from this perspective?
